Jan 26, 2021Liked by Doug O'Laughlin

Thank you again for this exceptionally lucid overview of an otherwise challenging industry to understand. I wanted to ask about your framing of timing the cycle. Is this much like the cycles you've seen before as far as length and breadth go (ignoring the share prices for a moment)? Is 3Q '21 being the peak potentially very wrong if maybe things are different this time? What do you make the argument that the industry being more consolidated in various sub spaces (like DRAM) so it won't be like previous horrible cycles? Thank you.

Expand full comment

So I think as with everything I am trying to take it as it comes. I am of the belief that 3Q 21 is NOT the peak. It is based on the consensus estimates but I think I did a terrible job of saying "this is wrong". The orange bars are pretty much made up numbers completely and often are wrong to upside and downside both ways. Its much easier to pick them apart than confirm if they are right.

With AMAT guides we will figure out what duration is like. Just based on anything they say about their 1H / 2H. But right now each quarter will only give us 1 quarter of forward visibility. That's it. And we have to take things as they come.

I do believe this is a bigger cycle - but we need to see a lot more information to really support this massively.

Expand full comment