6 Comments
AnonymousNov 3, 2020Liked by Doug O'Laughlin

Hi - I am a big bull on IPHI but your PAM4 estimates are too high. IPHI only sells chips, not transceivers. ASP is closer to $100 than the $1000 you're using. That said, your port count estimates are too low at least for 2021.

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author

I got the ASP estimate as half the module cost, and found the PAM4 transceiver prices off of FS.com. The pricing to me has always been hard and the amount of SKUs seem... all over the place. Then again net module cost is not the way to compare to the chip revenue. I don’t think the estimates are perfect.... but would love to hear more on what you think ASP is. Also I know port count is way insanely too low - but we will see when / if the 400G PAM4 ramps.

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AnonymousNov 4, 2020

This should be a high volume variant (DR4) but pricing should be a fraction of that if you're buying 500k units vs. buying 5.

https://www.fs.com/products/97306.html

When 400G module yields get to maturity a rule of thumb would be $1/ GB. DSP is the biggest component of cost, but the lasers aren't free either. GM for the module assembler figure 25%.

Email me directly if you want to talk further - I assume you have it tied to my log in?

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author

I sadly cannot gradually respond to you like that - feel free to email me at mule@aeris.ventures :) I would love to discuss this further

I will whole heartedly admit I like the top down estimates more than the bottom up - and i agree w/ the GM statement. I probably was too aggressive on that front. Thanks!

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You can get some help from here.

https://www.baudcom.com.cn/

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