Thoughts on ASML at these levels? Know you've mentioned that ASML gets/has been expensive in the $600 range - Still expensive here in the $500's? Also, We'll miss the posts, but wish you luck on the journey!
This is one of the things that everyone is thinking about quite a bit. This seems secular but an overbuild is totally possible. I don't think it is a real concern for now - but I 100% think you should watch out for it. In my parting post I'll give you some stop signs on what to look for imo.
Mule, why do the OSAT companies trade at such low multiples? 6239, 8150, AMKR, 2449 all trade at incredibly low FW multiples and solid dividend yields.
Very favorable. It trades at a decent forward multiple now and its pretty much a monopoly-ish business. I kind of love it. It's hard to get really excited at 30x given what I think it's growth profile is but now its much easier to underwrite. 25x or a 4% cash yield + 15% FCF CAGR is a nice return imo.
Would love your input on AI Semi Tenstorrent (where Jim Keller landed) as a specialized AI chip who should they be looking to manufacture with? The Semi-startup space in general has been interesting.
I don't have any really great thoughts other than the podcast. I really want to stress that they are among the 100s of semiconductor startups focused on doing this. Jim Keller is great - but just because he's there doesn't mean they "instantly win".
It's complicated and I'm waiting for actual product to have a stronger take.
Thoughts on ASML at these levels? Know you've mentioned that ASML gets/has been expensive in the $600 range - Still expensive here in the $500's? Also, We'll miss the posts, but wish you luck on the journey!
My must buy price is ~30x earnings - which is a bit lower than this. That would put it in the ~350s in EUR!
Dope, thank you although I wonder if we’ll see that... What a business they’ve got
I wonder your thoughts on big a risk this is https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-03-03/chip-shortage-2021-it-s-time-to-start-worrying-about-a-glut?sref=UVzE81xN
*How big
This is one of the things that everyone is thinking about quite a bit. This seems secular but an overbuild is totally possible. I don't think it is a real concern for now - but I 100% think you should watch out for it. In my parting post I'll give you some stop signs on what to look for imo.
Mule, why do the OSAT companies trade at such low multiples? 6239, 8150, AMKR, 2449 all trade at incredibly low FW multiples and solid dividend yields.
What's your thoughts on starting a position on TSM given the environment..
Ty
Very favorable. It trades at a decent forward multiple now and its pretty much a monopoly-ish business. I kind of love it. It's hard to get really excited at 30x given what I think it's growth profile is but now its much easier to underwrite. 25x or a 4% cash yield + 15% FCF CAGR is a nice return imo.
Would love your input on AI Semi Tenstorrent (where Jim Keller landed) as a specialized AI chip who should they be looking to manufacture with? The Semi-startup space in general has been interesting.
I don't have any really great thoughts other than the podcast. I really want to stress that they are among the 100s of semiconductor startups focused on doing this. Jim Keller is great - but just because he's there doesn't mean they "instantly win".
It's complicated and I'm waiting for actual product to have a stronger take.
Is this a story you are following: https://m.pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?sc=30800020&year=2021&no=205435
I mentioned it very briefly at the end. It’s the right asset that is in demand today, I think it’ll get sold. That being said no other view really.