Hi Mule, thanks for all the writing and insight of semi conductor industry. Are there any books/text that you recommend to read in order to better understand the industry? Although I had studied in college in computer architecture but the text like "Computer Architecture, A Quantitative Approach, Patterson and Hennessy" gives more design perspective. And I found out your writings probably overlaps more on practical perspective.
Excellent article Mule! I loved your workbook work.
On Intel, having worked a long time there I agree execution is going to be the challenge. Culture is not something easy to change, but if anyone can pull off a Satya to Microsoft then Pat is the best for that job at Intel. And with the geopolitical situation of Taiwan Intel could get really lucky here.
Question on wfe, apologizes if it's repetitive but can you point or list your top companies in wfe with respect to their current price and future growth.
I think AMAT / LRCX / ASML in that order is the companies I think that are most likely to benefit in the near term. AMAT went from out of consensus to consensus really quickly but likely will be growing a good bit given their mix. LRCX in my opinion has a better longer-term ability to grow given their 3D etch and how logic will get there.
For much more speculative plays with the higher beta to the market, UCTT comes to mind! Or AEIS. I personally like all of them and have a very hard time "grade them" against each other. I'm sure I'll mess up but I own AMAT / LRCX / UCTT all at similar sizes.
Also, I probably will make a post about the companies I own before I go - to make explicit what I really like. I struggle over and over with force ranking the ideas since I think many are well-positioned right now. The more important question to me is "do you own any semicap" haha
Thanks mule will wait anxiously for that post. I have owned mad, nvidia and tsmc since intel started stumbling since 2016. But have been ignorant of semi cap, so I am that fool who owns none semicap ha ha!
Hi. I just “subscribed”, but it sounds like I may be on a waitlist. I was hoping you could address something. I am apparently long the semiconductor companies you don’t cover (or don’t think much of, or I am totally wrong). Would you mind either briefly giving your opinions (or linking to them if they are somewhere else) on MRVL (along with soon to be acquired IPHI) and AMD (stand alone or with XLNX if you have thoughts on whether the Chinese approve). I hope this isn’t asking too much. If you just don’t like them, that would be sufficient for my purposes. Thanks in advance for any response.
Don't think it's possible to subscribe at this point. You joined the free email list, welcome!
I think MRVL is great - they will likely become the semi custom house that the big cloud guys go to. I own some from IPHI (my favorite one that got away)
I don't think I have great takes on AMD other than 1) their numbers are too low 2) they should of ordered more capacity at TSMC and 3) their long term problem is not Intel but x86's age and ARM from the hyperscalers.
That is really hard for me right now. I bought some short term calls into the announcement expecting something big and sold them ASAP. Look if you told me I HAD to be long or short Intel it would be long.
Yeah I think front end tactically much better. I think KLAC might end up with one of the best sharpe ratios but in a time of rising WFE you want to be at the front of the line. TEL/ASML/LRCX/AMAT. I think when I first posted the WFE playbook I expressed my love of AMAT due to mix shift, but it’s very funny to me because today I think their numbers have moved up the most and the stock is up the most since!
Right now (valuation aside) ASML seems to be the one with the most conservation in their guidance. Still a Lam fanboy as well.
Hi Mule, thanks for all the writing and insight of semi conductor industry. Are there any books/text that you recommend to read in order to better understand the industry? Although I had studied in college in computer architecture but the text like "Computer Architecture, A Quantitative Approach, Patterson and Hennessy" gives more design perspective. And I found out your writings probably overlaps more on practical perspective.
Good stuff mang!
Excellent article Mule! I loved your workbook work.
On Intel, having worked a long time there I agree execution is going to be the challenge. Culture is not something easy to change, but if anyone can pull off a Satya to Microsoft then Pat is the best for that job at Intel. And with the geopolitical situation of Taiwan Intel could get really lucky here.
Question on wfe, apologizes if it's repetitive but can you point or list your top companies in wfe with respect to their current price and future growth.
I think AMAT / LRCX / ASML in that order is the companies I think that are most likely to benefit in the near term. AMAT went from out of consensus to consensus really quickly but likely will be growing a good bit given their mix. LRCX in my opinion has a better longer-term ability to grow given their 3D etch and how logic will get there.
For much more speculative plays with the higher beta to the market, UCTT comes to mind! Or AEIS. I personally like all of them and have a very hard time "grade them" against each other. I'm sure I'll mess up but I own AMAT / LRCX / UCTT all at similar sizes.
Also, I probably will make a post about the companies I own before I go - to make explicit what I really like. I struggle over and over with force ranking the ideas since I think many are well-positioned right now. The more important question to me is "do you own any semicap" haha
Thanks mule will wait anxiously for that post. I have owned mad, nvidia and tsmc since intel started stumbling since 2016. But have been ignorant of semi cap, so I am that fool who owns none semicap ha ha!
ASML is so expensive right now, do you think that price is justified??
It’s a monopoly that is gonna grow for a long time
Hi. I just “subscribed”, but it sounds like I may be on a waitlist. I was hoping you could address something. I am apparently long the semiconductor companies you don’t cover (or don’t think much of, or I am totally wrong). Would you mind either briefly giving your opinions (or linking to them if they are somewhere else) on MRVL (along with soon to be acquired IPHI) and AMD (stand alone or with XLNX if you have thoughts on whether the Chinese approve). I hope this isn’t asking too much. If you just don’t like them, that would be sufficient for my purposes. Thanks in advance for any response.
Don't think it's possible to subscribe at this point. You joined the free email list, welcome!
I think MRVL is great - they will likely become the semi custom house that the big cloud guys go to. I own some from IPHI (my favorite one that got away)
I don't think I have great takes on AMD other than 1) their numbers are too low 2) they should of ordered more capacity at TSMC and 3) their long term problem is not Intel but x86's age and ARM from the hyperscalers.
A link to the IPHI / Post Merger Piece
https://mule.substack.com/p/at-the-heart-of-the-datacenter-400zr
Follow up
https://mule.substack.com/p/inphi-follow-up-the-games-on
i will go straight to the point: would you buy intel? :D
That is really hard for me right now. I bought some short term calls into the announcement expecting something big and sold them ASAP. Look if you told me I HAD to be long or short Intel it would be long.
I like semicap a lot more.
So would you prefer front end names again vs the likes of KLAC, etc?
Yeah I think front end tactically much better. I think KLAC might end up with one of the best sharpe ratios but in a time of rising WFE you want to be at the front of the line. TEL/ASML/LRCX/AMAT. I think when I first posted the WFE playbook I expressed my love of AMAT due to mix shift, but it’s very funny to me because today I think their numbers have moved up the most and the stock is up the most since!
Right now (valuation aside) ASML seems to be the one with the most conservation in their guidance. Still a Lam fanboy as well.