Great stuff Mule. Being cynical for a moment, I would say this has been the thesis for the back-end guys for over a decade. I appreciate that we have the likes of TSMC, Intel etc. showing greater interest in advanced packaging. However, unlike the front-end equipment market, where what TSMC and Intel move the needle, what such customers spend on back-end is not representative of the overall market. A good way to perhaps think about this when Apple adopts a new technology, it typically has a materially impact on the TAM. However, in spite of Apple/TSMC first adopting advanced packaging in 2016, the TAM inflection is still debatable. This because a significant % of the back market are the sub-contracts such as ASE, Amkor, JCET, SPIL etc. and IDMs such as STMicro, Infineon, Osram, NXP etc. who have shown very limited appetite to move towards advanced packaging owing to its high cost. So how can we be confident that this time it is different?
Brilliant primer, you made it so easy to absorb all that information, so well planned. Well worth the subscription. The internet is amazing!
The best article / primer on this topic anywhere
Great stuff Mule. Being cynical for a moment, I would say this has been the thesis for the back-end guys for over a decade. I appreciate that we have the likes of TSMC, Intel etc. showing greater interest in advanced packaging. However, unlike the front-end equipment market, where what TSMC and Intel move the needle, what such customers spend on back-end is not representative of the overall market. A good way to perhaps think about this when Apple adopts a new technology, it typically has a materially impact on the TAM. However, in spite of Apple/TSMC first adopting advanced packaging in 2016, the TAM inflection is still debatable. This because a significant % of the back market are the sub-contracts such as ASE, Amkor, JCET, SPIL etc. and IDMs such as STMicro, Infineon, Osram, NXP etc. who have shown very limited appetite to move towards advanced packaging owing to its high cost. So how can we be confident that this time it is different?