Interesting. I've noticed that I have been getting marketing emails from Thorne starting a couple months ago . Thanks for flagging . The CEO has an interesting background and seems legit based on what he posted on Linkedin (if that's accurate) and he's been with the company a long time. He's also the largest shareholder after the three institutions that own 70%.
The ethos checks on this company are absurd. Partnered with most of the legit athletic orgs + mayo clinic. Everything I've ever heard about them has been positive from that perspective, only "price:
I’m not a Huberman listener, but I have been a user of Thorne products for a while (I have also gotten deep into fragrances in recent years, but that's a different story). I've been watching THRN since it IPO'd, and although I am rooting for management I cannot get myself bullish on either the business or the equity. Because of the very low levels of regulation and the fact that a lot of these compounds are inexpensive to synthesize the barriers to entry are incredibly low, even for those with premium product formulations. It is hard for me to see a way for Thorne to maintain premium pricing as it scales. The fact that 2022 top line growth is looking like it will be half of what it was in 2021 might confirm this worry.
I will start to get bullish on the premium side of the supplements industry if/when primary care physicians start relying on supplements as a core part of their care. The AMA has been skeptical of supplements for a variety of reasons, quality control being one of their top concerns. Either Thorne on its own, or a consortium of premium, high-quality supplements manufacturers together, should attempt a push in into the medical market with a menu of suggested primary care applications, as well as a voluntary, third party verified regulatory scheme, to develop this end of the market.
I understand and think what you're saying is hyper reasonable. Thorne really has to have and maintain some kind of brand (it is) and the belief that it can continue a bit long while the equity is kind of cheap makes me think its possible.
I am not saying "GET LONG THIS THING HIGH CONVICTION" just that it's a solid r/r. Its a very small position % wise for me. I think of it as a starter that I am super down to size up if I can. Thorne is trying pretty hard to get there, and that articulated vision of the future seems... possible and a cheap option in the equity today.
Totally agree, and I did not mean to imply that you are pounding the table on the name. My experience as a somewhat well-informed supplements consumer is that the premium supplement brands face a much more difficult task than premium brands in other industries, such as name brand name otc pharma brands that are competing with otc generics. But I hope Thorne makes it, and am happy to support them by buying their products,. Just not their equity (yet).
Fwiw if we get the confirmation that fragrances really is going to grow at a higher rate than history, I would consider a table pounding kind of investment. COTY in particular looks like it could swing with some very interesting incrementals
Yes, sure looks like a good bet. Thank you for this post, by the way. I will +1 the others here who would love to read more such pieces as a supplement (heh) to your excellent semi analysis.
Wrt fragrance, unlike supplements, this is one area where I have not translated my interest as a consumer into an investment thesis. I'm almost afraid to do so since most of my tastes run to indy brands with poor economics. But thanks to this post I will spend my evenings this week reading some 10ks.
This is rather refreshing I don’t know much about fragrance or luxury. But I think one of its supplier perhaps could have some moat in their business. It’s IFF. Personally I like it better than Givaudan
I did a lot of work on fragrances a few years ago - and i found it hard to believe one will beat the other over a meaningful amount of time. It's probably the right play to just "get long the one w/ most fragrance"
That’s interesting. Could I tap your experience then. Is it fair to say beside IFF and Givaudan, there isn’t any other credible competitors in this field?
my conclusion is that the smaller guys are always share gainers but often at worse economics. They do well until they do well enough to get acquired was my conclusion IIRC. This was ~16/17
Interesting. I've noticed that I have been getting marketing emails from Thorne starting a couple months ago . Thanks for flagging . The CEO has an interesting background and seems legit based on what he posted on Linkedin (if that's accurate) and he's been with the company a long time. He's also the largest shareholder after the three institutions that own 70%.
The ethos checks on this company are absurd. Partnered with most of the legit athletic orgs + mayo clinic. Everything I've ever heard about them has been positive from that perspective, only "price:
Rhonda Patrick also mentioned Thorne a bunch of times, though I don't think it was ever sponsored, just her own preference.
That Jeremy Fragrance video is amazing -- almost did a spit-take in the middle
He's one of my favorites. The comment sections are "how many lines [of cocaine] did he take today" and is a little sub culture into itself
Yesssss, I love your random obsessions with stuff that isn't semi as much as your semi stuff, sometimes more!
my 2023 goal is to foster those obsessions in a good way - so trend watch has been a long time coming.
Arnold voice: "DOOOO IIIIITT"
I await your transition to posting about license sciences stuff. You know it but don't say much
lmao it is another kind of fabricated technology - but i am far from being anywhere good enough to post anything other than ideas lol
$AZTA GANG
Would be a good primer!
nice post!
I’m not a Huberman listener, but I have been a user of Thorne products for a while (I have also gotten deep into fragrances in recent years, but that's a different story). I've been watching THRN since it IPO'd, and although I am rooting for management I cannot get myself bullish on either the business or the equity. Because of the very low levels of regulation and the fact that a lot of these compounds are inexpensive to synthesize the barriers to entry are incredibly low, even for those with premium product formulations. It is hard for me to see a way for Thorne to maintain premium pricing as it scales. The fact that 2022 top line growth is looking like it will be half of what it was in 2021 might confirm this worry.
I will start to get bullish on the premium side of the supplements industry if/when primary care physicians start relying on supplements as a core part of their care. The AMA has been skeptical of supplements for a variety of reasons, quality control being one of their top concerns. Either Thorne on its own, or a consortium of premium, high-quality supplements manufacturers together, should attempt a push in into the medical market with a menu of suggested primary care applications, as well as a voluntary, third party verified regulatory scheme, to develop this end of the market.
I understand and think what you're saying is hyper reasonable. Thorne really has to have and maintain some kind of brand (it is) and the belief that it can continue a bit long while the equity is kind of cheap makes me think its possible.
I am not saying "GET LONG THIS THING HIGH CONVICTION" just that it's a solid r/r. Its a very small position % wise for me. I think of it as a starter that I am super down to size up if I can. Thorne is trying pretty hard to get there, and that articulated vision of the future seems... possible and a cheap option in the equity today.
Totally agree, and I did not mean to imply that you are pounding the table on the name. My experience as a somewhat well-informed supplements consumer is that the premium supplement brands face a much more difficult task than premium brands in other industries, such as name brand name otc pharma brands that are competing with otc generics. But I hope Thorne makes it, and am happy to support them by buying their products,. Just not their equity (yet).
Fwiw if we get the confirmation that fragrances really is going to grow at a higher rate than history, I would consider a table pounding kind of investment. COTY in particular looks like it could swing with some very interesting incrementals
Yes, sure looks like a good bet. Thank you for this post, by the way. I will +1 the others here who would love to read more such pieces as a supplement (heh) to your excellent semi analysis.
Wrt fragrance, unlike supplements, this is one area where I have not translated my interest as a consumer into an investment thesis. I'm almost afraid to do so since most of my tastes run to indy brands with poor economics. But thanks to this post I will spend my evenings this week reading some 10ks.
This is rather refreshing I don’t know much about fragrance or luxury. But I think one of its supplier perhaps could have some moat in their business. It’s IFF. Personally I like it better than Givaudan
I did a lot of work on fragrances a few years ago - and i found it hard to believe one will beat the other over a meaningful amount of time. It's probably the right play to just "get long the one w/ most fragrance"
in this case its Givaudan
That’s interesting. Could I tap your experience then. Is it fair to say beside IFF and Givaudan, there isn’t any other credible competitors in this field?
'
my conclusion is that the smaller guys are always share gainers but often at worse economics. They do well until they do well enough to get acquired was my conclusion IIRC. This was ~16/17